Ebola Virus Outbreak 2014 - News Updates: Myths vs. Facts: What's the forecast?

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Much has been said about Ebola since its outbreak in March this year in West African countries Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. The journey of the virus began in 1976 in Zaire, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and it was during this time that some information about the virus was known by a group of researchers led by Dr. Peter Piot.

However, the ebola virus is barely a young species. Evidence shows that the virus is an "ancient" species, with split-offs from its viral lineages from as early as 20 million years ago,

According to reports from the New York Times, evolutionary biologist Derek J. Taylor, one of the authors of the said study, said that "for most of that time, strains of Ebola infected rodents and other mammals."

From mammals like bats, the virus could have possibly entered the human body-with its first recorded case in 1976-- and now, it is on its way to becoming one of the most feared epidemics in world history.

New studies also point that the present ebola virus could be a descendant of the 1976 strain, and that "it's possible that there's a diverse range of viruses," according to Dr. Andrew Rambaut, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Edinburgh.

Forecast

As of today, the present virus has reached 8,914, according to the(WHO), with 4,447 deaths.

The spread is starting to happen so fast that the WHO is projecting the number of cases to reach 10,000 a week in less than two months.

Dr. Bruce Aylward, WHO assistant director general said the survival rate was now "30 percent at most in West African countries."

The ebola outbreak has somewhat caused panic especially in countries with recorded cases of the viral infection, particularly the U.S, Germany, and other nearby European countries.

This has led to paranoia and even speculations on the capabilities of this much-dreaded virus.

Myths

But what are the myths surrounding the virus that need to be dispelled so as to avoid misinformation and lack of understanding of ebola as a disease?

1.    That the virus has developed over the years as a superpathogen.

2.    That the virus might mutate into a deadlier virus, and the means of their transmission might change in the months to come.

The New York Times has reported that according to evolutionary biologists, ebola virus has not developed into a superpathogen although, just like other types of viruses, they do mutate after being spread from person another. It doesn't make the virus deadlier, though.

Also, evolutionary biologists didn't find any evidence that new mutations of the earlier ebola virus are the cause of the widespread outbreak being experienced today.

Dr. Rambaut said, "It's far more plausible that the difference is that it's gotten into a different human population."

It could be that the virus has reached a bigger number of hosts in bigger and densely-populated areas which has led to an epidemic.

Dr. Edward Holmes, a biologist at the University of Sydney in Australia said, "You've got a fairly standard ebola virus. It's just in the worst possible place," as he supports the idea that the virus has not mutated into another deadlier strain.

Also, the Ebola virus is said to be the same virus discovered years ago, and it would be unlikely for it to spread more easily particularly by becoming airborne, as reported in the New York Times.

However, Dr. Holmes admitted that viruses do sometimes switch their route of infection, though "it does happen in an evolutionary context," he said.

"... the change would require many mutations in many genes, and it might be nearly impossible for so many mutations to emerge during a single outbreak. The mutated viruses would survive only if they were superior to the ones spread by bodily fluids," he added.

Dr. Rambaut, meanwhile agreed that "viruses generally don't change to that radical degree."